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| SCENARIOS - Bin Laden's secret years; where was he and who knew? Posted: 10 May 2011 06:42 AM PDT ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - U.S. investigators are trying to put together the pieces of Osama bin Laden's secret life in the hope of unearthing details of his global network of Islamist militants bent on attacking the West.
Key to that will be tracing his movements from the weeks after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States to last week, when U.S. special forces killed him after discovering him hiding in a compound in the Pakistani town of Abbottabad. Efforts to trace his movements over the decade are likely to shed light on who helped him, and that could prove highly embarrassing to U.S. ally Pakistan which has rejected as absurd accusations it was either incompetent or playing a double game. Following are some possible explanations for how bin Laden ended up under the noses of the Pakistani authorities, in a compound with high walls topped with barbed wire, a short distance from the country's top military academy. HE WAS ON HIS OWN Pakistan has rejected any suggestion of involvement in bin Laden's lost years. That would mean he was on his own and managed to slip into Pakistan from Afghanistan in late December 2001 undetected, and remained hidden with a handful of aides and relatives from the eyes of the authorities, including the pervasive security agencies. Pakistani investigators, questioning bin Laden's three wives who were found in the compound after the May 2 raid, said the women had told them bin Laden had been hiding in the compound for the past five years, and previously he had spent two-and-a-half years in the nearby village of Chak Shah Mohammad. Reporters could find no trace of bin Laden there. A move to Abbottabad in 2006 would suggest he felt compelled to leave wherever he had been. It was in January 2006 that the CIA began its campaign of attacks by missile-firing drone aircraft on militants sheltering in lawless Pashtun tribal lands on the Pakistani side of the Afghan border, with a deadly strike on Damadola village, in the Bajaur region. Another possibility is that bin Laden felt compelled to move after an earthquake in October 2005 killed 73,000 people. The U.S. military and other Western armies sent forces to help with rescue efforts in northern mountains, including the Pakistani part of the Kashmir region where various militant groups operate. Had bin Laden been holed up in the disaster zone, he might have felt it safer to move somewhere like Abbottabad, which was not badly hit and not the focus of foreign attention. Whatever his movements, the fact he went undetected for at least five years in Pakistan suggests an intelligence failure. Abbottabad is a garrison town where military commanders come and go. Residents in the neighbourhood thought the behaviour of the occupants of the bin Laden compound strange, particularly that about 16 children living there were schooled at home and never allowed out on their own. Did such behaviour never rouse the curiosity of security agents, especially those responsible for the safety of the top brass on their comings and goings to the nearby military academy? PAKISTAN KNEW EVERYTHING Analysts find it hard to believe Pakistani leaders were sheltering the chief of a group whose members were trying to kill them. Former military leader and president Pervez Musharraf narrowly survived two bomb attacks carried out by al Qaeda-linked militants while his prime minister survived one. Security forces, including the main Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, have been repeatedly attacked by bin Laden's followers, losing thousands of men. It seems inconceivable that there was any formal government decision to shelter bin Laden, especially one made by a civilian government that took power in 2008, or that government leaders had any clue about him. But in a country that has been ruled by the military for more than half its 64 years of history, such sensitive issues are anyway the exclusive domain of the military/security establishment. ROGUE OR RETIRED SECURITY AGENTS HELPED HIM The truth almost undoubtedly lies somewhere in the murky void between the scenario that Pakistan authorities knew nothing and knew everything. It's conceivable that in the fraught weeks after the Sept. 11 attacks, the world's most wanted man slipped across the border from Afghanistan to escape U.S. bombs and someone decided it was in Pakistan's national interest to hold the "asset". Security agents could have set up an independent team outside the chain of command to watch over the al Qaeda leader. That could have given Pakistan's security establishment the best of both worlds - plausible deniability and an asset of unmatched value. Or rogue or retired security agents could have decided that in defiance of the country's official policy to join the United States in the global campaign against militancy, it was in Pakistan's national interest to hold him. They could have let the al Qaeda leader hide under the noses of the military, and under their watch, in the garrison town. It was only a chance phone call, intercepted by a Pakistani security team probably with no idea of any link to bin Laden, or to his handlers, and passed on to the United States, that led the CIA on its secret mission to his lair. WHY? The answer to why some Pakistanis might have thought it wise to hold the man some of whose followers are battling the Pakistani state could probably be found in the country's obsessive suspicion of its nuclear-armed rival, India. Pakistan has no interest in bin Laden's global holy war but the defence against perceived Indian aggression drives strategic thinking, and militants have regularly been used against India and its influence in the region. No matter that some al Qaeda followers were battling Pakistan, if others were willing and able to fight India, perhaps it was seen as best to hold their inspirational leader. Or perhaps some Pakistanis thought bin Laden could have been an ace to offer the United States the next time war with India loomed. Or perhaps some Pakistanis thought U.S. engagement with Pakistan, its influence with India on Pakistan's behalf, and its billions of dollars in aid, would end once the Americans had caught their enemy number one. (Editing by John Chalmers) Copyright © 2011 Reuters Full Feed Generated by Get Full RSS, sponsored by USA Best Price. | ||
| TIMELINE - Libya's uprising against Muammar Gaddafi Posted: 10 May 2011 06:42 AM PDT REUTERS - Here is a timeline on the revolt in Libya since the first protests began in February: Feb 15/16, 2011 - A riot in Benghazi is triggered by the arrest of human rights activist Fethi Tarbel, who has worked to free political prisoners, Quryna newspaper reports.
Feb. 17 - Activists designate this day as a day of rage. It is the anniversary of clashes in 2006 in Benghazi when security forces killed protesters attacking the city's Italian consulate. Feb. 21 - Diplomats at Libya's mission to the United Nations side with the revolt against their country's leader and call on the Libyan army to help overthrow "the tyrant Muammar Gaddafi". Feb. 22 - A defiant Gaddafi vows to die "a martyr" in Libya and says he will crush a revolt which has seen eastern regions break free from four decades of his rule. Feb. 24 - Anti-Libyan government militias take control of Misrata after evicting forces loyal to Gaddafi. Feb. 26 - The U.N. Security Council imposes sanctions on Gaddafi and his family, and refers Libya's crackdown on rebels to the International Criminal Court. Feb. 28 - EU governments approve a package of sanctions against Gaddafi and his closest advisers including an arms embargo and bans on travel to the bloc. -- Gaddafi refuses to acknowledge protests in the streets of Tripoli, saying all Libyans love him. March 1 - The U.N. General Assembly unanimously suspends Libya's membership of the U.N. Human Rights Council. March 5 - The national council meets in Benghazi and declares itself sole representative for Libya. March 10 - France recognises the Libyan National Council, the rebel body fighting to oust Gaddafi, as the legitimate representative of Libya's people. Libya suspends diplomatic relations with France the next day. March 16 - Forces loyal to Gaddafi are near rebel-held Benghazi. Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam tells France-based TV channel Euronews: "Everything will be over in 48 hours." March 17 - The U.N. Security Council votes to authorise a no-fly zone over Libya and "all necessary measures" -- code for military action -- to protect civilians against Gaddafi's army. March 19 - The first air strikes halt the advance of Gaddafi's forces on Benghazi and target Libya's air defences. March 22 - "We will not surrender," Gaddafi tells supporters forming a human shield to protect him at his Tripoli compound. "This assault ... is by a bunch of fascists who will end up in the dustbin of history," Gaddafi says. March 28 - Qatar becomes the first Arab country to recognise Libya's rebels as the people's legitimate representative. March 29 - A London conference of 40 governments and international organisations agrees to set up a contact group comprising 20 countries to coordinate political efforts on a post-Gaddafi Libya. March 30 - Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa defects and flies to Britain. April 3 - Libyan Deputy Foreign Minister Abdelati Obeidi visits Greece looking for a political solution to the crisis. April 10 - Gaddafi accepts a roadmap for ending the conflict, South African President Jacob Zuma says after leading a delegation of four African leaders at talks in Tripoli. April 11 - Rebels reject an African Union peace plan as it does not address their main demand that Gaddafi quit and it proposes reforming a ruling system they want removed. April 13 - Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini says his country no longer has any relations with the government in western Libya. April 20 - Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam, speaking on state television, says that the government will prevail over the rebels and a new constitution is ready for when the insurgency is defeated. April 29 - Gaddafi, in a live speech, says he is ready for a ceasefire and negotiations, provided NATO "stops its planes". April 30 - A NATO missile attack on a house in Tripoli kills Gaddafi's youngest son and three grandchildren. The Libyan leader survives the attack but has not been seen since. May 1 - Libya says it regrets the attacks on several embassies saying its police force was overpowered by crowds angered by the NATO strike that killed Gaddafi's son. May 5 - Ministers from the anti-Gaddafi Libya contact group, among them the U.S., France, Britain and Italy, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan, agree in Rome to set up a non-military fund to help the rebels, who are short of cash. -- Libyan Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Kaim condemns attempts to use frozen assets to help the rebels. May 6 - Indiscriminate attacks by loyalist forces in Misrata may amount to war crimes, Amnesty International says. May 7 - Government forces destroy fuel storage tanks in Misrata, rebels report, making it more difficult for the city to withstand the government siege. May 9 - Oil payments for Libyan rebels selling crude oil are being made through a Qatari trust fund in U.S. dollars, a member of the oil and gas support group for Libya says. Around 1 million barrels have been sold at $100 million so far. May 10 - NATO launches new missile strikes against targets in the Tripoli area that appear to include Gaddafi's compound, witnesses say. Copyright © 2011 Reuters Full Feed Generated by Get Full RSS, sponsored by USA Best Price. |
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